I like electronic gadgets.  I’ve often been an early adopter AND have suffered through the tribulations of such.  I  do not write about these experiences much.  And my colleagues wish I would write more to that effect.  This post is directed at that wish.  In it, I will discuss my views on three things:

1. Direction of the wireless industry
2. The Apple iPad
3. Verizon and the iPhone

Disclosure:  I am not stating anything here that I have uncovered as a trade secret.  All speculations are based upon industry news, trends, and my knowledge of the wireless industry.  Nothing else – no insider magic or hocus pocus.

Mobile Direction

Mobile’s future is in data

To many, this is not a shocking revelation.  We expect this as a natural evolution of the industry.  Why then are so many folks just waking up to the power of a smartphone?  I believe the shock here will not be in the need for mobile data services.  I think the shock is in how fast the industry will switch to data services as the monetary driver.

In the United States, we have seen the traditional land line need decline in favor of a mobile device.  The next step here is the decline of the mobile phone for traditional voice calling in favor of VOIP and other data based services – such as video conferencing.  I believe the big phone companies also see this as the inevitable future and that is why they are making some changes or decisions in their overall business strategy.  Sure, AT&T and Verizon are still shedding their land line businesses – but they are also bolstering their data options.  for example:

AT&T aquired a large network of Wi-Fi hotspots. They have also added personal microcell products to their portfolio.  Why?  These are two easy ways for the company to backhaul its own data needs while reducing the strain on its 3g networks.

Verizon on the other hand has partnered with Skype to offer VOIP calls (on the Verizon network of course).  To me – this says the company realizes that data is the wave of the future.  Verizon has also endorsed the use of Wi-Fi and they are touting their aggressive roll-out of 4g LTE technology.

I would not be surprised to see data plans increase in price (as well as capacity) and have voice calling allowed for free – much like we take no long distance charges for granted today.

There’s an app for that

The next trend is mobile applications.  Again, not a shocker for many out there.  The shock is again in how quickly apps are become pervasive.  They are no longer little gag gift apps like iFart or iBeer – they are becoming useful productivity tools or better yet – custom proprietary applications for conducting business.  If you are starting out as a developer – you might want to focus here.

That stated – there is a war brewing.  That war is for the mobile application development framework.  Adobe is working to make Flash and Air mobile capable.  While other companies such as Appcelerator are working to provide a flexible, multi-language, multi-platform framework.  This is a realm that Microsoft has lost – they just don’t want to admit it yet.  The war is Adobe’s to lose.  There are numerous Flash/Flex developers out there waiting to put their app on a mobile platform.  Unfortunately, if Adobe can only get the Andriod platform on board by the end of the year (as Microsoft and Apple claim performance issues), an upstart cross-platform framework like Appcelerator’s, may be the big win.

The Apple iCan’tComeUpWithABetterProductName

The iPad – what a stupid name.  This device really intrigues me. I can say I will NOT buy a first generation device.  I will however watch it’s development and could purchase a second generation product.  I could certainly see it replacing my netbook.  I don’t see it replacing my desktop or developer class laptop anytime soon.  But that device that I take on plane trips, vacations, etc. – absolutely.  Especially if I can read my paper on it and have 10 hours of battery life to boot.  I won’t let the name scare me away – but I do know a few people who won’t buy it because of its name.  I’ll also be on the lookout for any Android based tablets as they may be a better fit for my personal work/business mix.

So here is what I don’t like about the iPad or what we suspect of the iPad:

• No multitasking:  I think you will see this in a future OS upgrade.  I believe you will see this on the iPhone as well.
• No video output:  The iPad looks like a great movie machine – why not allow me to hook it to my TV.   Oh, that’s right – you want me to use Apple TV for that and use iTunes as the digital hub for all.  I guess that’s why no DVD or blu-ray capability as well (I can live without these).
• No USB:  I love the cloud, but there will always be instances when I need to put my data on something portable – like a thumb drive.  Give me USB connectivity please.  This way I can hook up my storage as needed or better yet – my printer.
• Can you save and transfer documents to the iPad?  I can do this on my iPhone already.  I use a cloud service application – like Dropbox or Box.net and an application such as QuickOffice to edit my documents.  Sure it will be great to have more robust applications but I don’t think this is a major show stopper.
• Does the iPad support Microsoft Exchange email? I personally don’t care as I have dumped Exchange in favor of Google Apps.  This is a very pressing question for all those folks using Exchange.  It even more pressing for the IT folks supporting Exchange who need to explain to their users why they can’t use mobile devices like the iPhone or iPad in this way.
• Does the iPad support VPN and configuration management? Again, I don’t care.  But this is an important aspect to consider in the enterprise.
• Can you use media services other than iTunes on the iPad? I might not care.  And it would be great if I could playback from NetFlix or any of the major network websites.
• Can the iPad be used for videoconferencing? No camera, so apparently not.  I think the addition of a web conferencing camera(s) and stellar speakerphone would be a KILLER application for this device.
• Will the iPad’s internal storage be upgradable? I got a lot of stuff.  I need ready access to it OR I need to haul a lot around with me.  There are two choices here – allow m to use external devices OR allow me to expand my device storage.
• Will Apple allow the use of Flash on the iPad? They will have to – eventually OR they will lose the marketshare they have built.

Verizon and the iPhone

I keep telling people that they should not hold tier breath for this one.  I don’t think it is realistic to expect Apple to deliver a CDMA radio based iPhone when LTE technology is right around the corner.  Verizon is building out its 4g LTE network in 2010 and 2011.  Guess what, that’;s just in time for the 5 year (people seem to forget that) exclusive deal Apple has with AT&T to expire.  That’s when you will see it – when it won’t cost money to run two production lines AND when Verizon has LTE in place.

While we are at it – think back 3 years.  Do you think Verizon’s network could have handled the influx of iPhone users and data use?  I personally do not think so.  Verizon is very protective about its network.  I think those phones would have been locked down and prohibited from a lot of things much like AT&T did (navigation apps) and continues to do (tethering).

I’m not trying to defend one network over the other.  I use AT&T.  I was employed by Verizon.  Both have their merits and headaches.